April 6, 2008

Obama Will Win Pennsylvania

A bold prediction indeed, but not really. Recent news reports indicate that there are more than 4 million registered Pennsylvanian democrats, the highest total ever. The reason for this is the overwhelming support for Senator Barack Obama's presidential campaign.

Many political pundits say that Hillary Clinton's 'misspeaking' over her alleged sniper attack in Bosnia is the reason behind her recent fall in the polls. The media would have had you to believe that based on her victory in Ohio, that she would bring in a double digit victory in Pennsylvania. I never thought that was true.

Pennsylvania and Ohio are similar in some ways, but very different in many other ways. Pennsylvania has not had the economic devastation that Ohio has suffered. The state also has two very large cities in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia with large Democratic bases that have embraced the thought of making a change in the current state of politics as usual. No, no, this is not Ohio, West Virginia, Mississippi, even though parts of it resemble it.

Let's look at the current governor, Ed Rendell, a Philadelphia politician, who has managed to maintain a strong state and national political base despite the fact that he doesn't appeal to Pennsylvania outside of the Philadelphia area. If Philadelphia is involved in an election then a candidate must carry the city to win. Well, you might say he is a Clinton supporter, doesn't that count for something. It does count. That fact might give Clinton a narrow edge. Not the double digit win many predicted three weeks ago. But as I see it, Obama garnered a major endorsement from Senator Bob Casey. Many people in Pennsylvania think like him. He said his daughters supported Obama, so the choice was easy for him. Many young people along with African Americans, particularly in the Philadelphia area support Obama. Philadelphia is the straw that stirs the drink.
If I look at this election on a purely emotional level, which elections are solely based upon, then I'm thinking given a choice between a man or a women, I feel most Pennsylvanians will choose a man over a women. When a white male trade union member in Philadelphia expresses his support for Obama, then it's definitely not politics as usual. You need more evidence? Listen to the audio clip from my previous blog from WIP radio.

Obama is spending a ton of money in advertising. He made an appearance on MSNBC's Hardball at West Chester University. The momentum and enthusiasm that was witnessed in the crowd should not be taken lightly. Hillary Clinton will continue to make appearances in places like Scranton, Erie, Johnstown, etc., but it does not translate into the impact she would hope it would have across the state. Not when there are major populations in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. If Hillary doesn't carry Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, which is not going to happen, then she won't win the primary vote on April 22nd.



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